Soybean Rally Loses Steam Amid Weak DOC Buying

The soybean market witnessed a firm trend during the early part of the week, supported by strong demand for Soy DOC (De-Oiled Cake), which pushed soybean prices higher by around ₹150–₹200 per quintal. However, buying interest in DOC weakened toward the end of the week, leading to a correction in soybean prices across major markets and processing plants. At Kirti Plant, soybean prices initially surged by ₹220 before retreating by ₹120 to close at ₹7,450 per quintal. Indore Mandi also recorded an early-week gain of about ₹300, but prices eased by ₹50 in the closing sessions, settling at ₹7,000 per quintal. Similarly, Goyal Kota Plant registered a rise of ₹200, followed by a decline of ₹100, bringing the final price to ₹8,000 per quintal. At Dhulia Deesan Plant, prices climbed sharply by ₹325 before slipping by ₹100, ending the week at ₹7,225 per quintal. According to market experts, soybean sowing for the Kharif 2026 season is now approximately 90%–91% complete. The cultivated area is expected to exceed last years level, as attractive soybean prices have encouraged many farmers to shift back from maize cultivation to soybean. The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) stated that actual field sowing is running 7–10 days ahead of the governments official estimates. Around 90% of sowing has been completed in Madhya Pradesh, while Maharashtra has achieved 80%–90% coverage. However, sowing has slowed in some districts due to insufficient rainfall. In Rajasthan, only about 35%–40% of the sowing has been completed so far, although faster progress is expected if monsoon activity strengthens. Weather forecasts also indicate that Maharashtra may receive below-average rainfall over the next two weeks. The governments ongoing soybean auctions continue to influence market sentiment from time to time. In this context, SOPA has urged the government to immediately suspend soybean sales, arguing that releasing government stocks during the sowing season could put downward pressure on prices and directly impact farmers earnings. Current market inventories are significantly lower than those seen a year ago. As a result, processing plants are concerned about maintaining adequate supplies until fresh arrivals from the new crop begin. This concern has prompted crushers to purchase soybean aggressively across different price levels, regardless of short-term market fluctuations. Market participants are now closely monitoring weather developments. Concerns are increasing that inadequate rainfall and extreme heat could damage the standing crop. If unfavorable weather conditions persist from late July through August, soybean production may be adversely affected. Based on the current market fundamentals, analysts do not expect either a major rally or a steep decline in soybean prices in the near term. Building large inventories at elevated prices during the sowing season could prove risky once fresh arrivals increase in the coming months. From a trading perspective, a more prudent strategy would be to accumulate stocks during price corrections and book profits during rallies rather than holding inventories for the long term at current price levels. From a technical standpoint, Kirti Plant continues to have strong long-term support at ₹7,000 per quintal, while prices are considered unlikely to fall below ₹7,250 in the short term. Analysts expect soybean prices at Kirti Plant to remain within the ₹7,250–₹7,800 per quintal range. The ₹7,750 level is regarded as a key resistance point, and only a sustained move above this level could trigger the next phase of bullish momentum. Until then, the market is expected to remain volatile, and traders are advised to make buying and selling decisions based on their own market assessment.

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