Soybean production this season is now estimated to remain around 9.8–10.0 million metric tonnes, significantly lower than previous years. At the same time, crushing activity has already been completed to a large extent and international markets are witnessing tight supply. As a result, prices of Soy De-Oiled Cake (DOC) have strengthened sharply and further upside of nearly ₹10,000 per tonne appears possible in the coming period. Soybean prices are also expected to move higher alongside. It has been nearly four months since the soybean harvest. Continuous rainfall starting just 15 days after sowing, followed by unseasonal rains during crop maturity, caused heavy damage to crops across major producing regions such as Shivpuri, Datia, Sujalpur, Neemuch, Dahod, Kota, Akola and Jalgaon. Over the past three years, India’s soybean production had been in the range of 13.0–13.5 million metric tonnes, but this year output has declined sharply. Earlier, good-quality loose soybean was selling in mandis at ₹3,700–3,800 per quintal. Prices have now risen to ₹4,600–4,650 per quintal, while plant-delivered prices in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have reached ₹5,050–5,150 per quintal. During the harvest period, the government procured soybeans at the Minimum Support Price (MSP), which was ₹1,300–1,400 per quintal higher than prevailing mandi prices. For 2024–25, the MSP was ₹4,892 per quintal, which has been increased by ₹436 to ₹5,328 per quintal for 2025–26. Soy DOC exports during the 2024–25 kharif season are up by 23–24 percent compared to the same period last year. This is why Soy DOC prices on the Neemuch line, which had earlier corrected to ₹27,500 per tonne, have now surged to ₹37,500–37,700 per tonne. On the Kota line, trade is taking place at ₹38,200–38,400 per tonne ex-plant. At Indian ports, exporters are buying at ₹41,500–42,000 per tonne delivered. The government’s MSP procurement, which covered about 45–48 percent protein-grade soybeans, resulted in higher sales by farmers compared to last year. On the other hand, strong international Soy DOC prices have boosted exports from plants in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, including via sea routes. Stock availability is significantly lower this year. Neemuch line arrivals are reportedly down by around 32 percent compared to last year, while Datia and Sujalpur lines also have reduced stocks. Rajasthan and Maharashtra mandis are witnessing 12–15 percent lower availability. Consequently, solvent extraction plants are forced to buy soybean seed at higher prices to produce DOC. Currently, Soy DOC on the Kota line is trading at ₹38,400–38,500 per tonne ex-plant, and prices may rise further to around ₹48,000 per tonne. Soybean prices, presently at ₹5,100–5,150 per quintal delivered to plants, could move up to ₹6,000 per quintal. Any further upside will depend on weather conditions and the next sowing season. Although global trade tensions have slightly increased risk, the next soybean crop is still about eight months away and market arrivals remain tight in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Given strong international prices, robust Soy DOC exports are expected to continue at least until June. Therefore, current price levels are considered relatively low-risk.