Increased New-Crop Loading Pushes Indian Brazil Rajma into a Bearish

With a sharp rise in the loading of new-crop Maharashtra Rajma Chitra (Indian Brazil) toward Delhi since last week, markets at the origin have fallen into a deep bearish phase. As soon as arrivals began, buying interest completely disappeared, and at present there are no buyers visible even at distant levels. Prices are showing signs of further decline by ₹6–7 per kg. The trade had been awaiting the arrival of the new Maharashtra Rajma Chitra crop for the past month, and that moment has now arrived. Since last week, supplies from the Barshi–Beed belt have started loading. The first truck reportedly sold at ₹107 per kg in Delhi last week, but due to heavy loading pressure and widespread selling over Saturday and Sunday, prices have slipped sharply to ₹86–87 per kg today. In reality, even ₹85 failed to find support today. Market talk has now shifted to ₹83–84 per kg, and deals have reportedly been concluded in Delhi at ₹83 per kg for delivery up to Monday next week, creating further panic across the trade. Once again, Rajma Chitra has entered a bearish quagmire. According to traders, combined production of Indian Brazil and Ganna varieties is estimated at around 8–8.5 lakh bags, and heavy arrivals at producing mandis have built simultaneous pressure. As a result, Delhi traders are now assuming that unpicked Indian Brazil Rajma may fall to ₹80 per kg. Spot prices today are being quoted at ₹87 per kg. Looking ahead, Ganna Varun quality may sell as low as ₹65 per kg at origin, while good-quality Indian Brazil is likely to trade at ₹73–74 per kg in producing markets. This outlook has also dragged down China Rajma prices by ₹3 to ₹99–101 per kg, with virtually no buying interest. Dollar-based prices in China have also weakened. We believe that the more the market corrects, the better it will be for traders in the long run, making business easier ahead. However, the intensity of this bearish phase over just three days was beyond expectations. In a closed market, prices have crashed from ₹105 to ₹87 per kg. At current levels, prices may decline by another ₹5–6 per kg, after which trading should be done freely. Once Indian Brazil reaches around ₹80 per kg in Delhi, downside risk appears limited and traders are likely to find ample profit opportunities.

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