Market trend we had anticipated for maize has proven accurate. The market has shown stability with a slight downward bias, with prices consistently remaining ₹400–₹600 below the MSP of ₹2400 per quintal. This week, trade-level prices were reported around ₹1350 for wet maize with 25% moisture, ₹1650 for average quality with 20% moisture, ₹2100 for good-quality dry maize, and about ₹2250 for premium quality. Market sentiment weakened after reports of the India–US trade agreement. With the removal of punitive tariffs, there is a possibility that India may import soybeans, maize, and dairy products duty-free, which has further dampened buying interest. However, the CNF prices for potential maize imports from the US are estimated at around ₹21,285 per ton—significantly higher than domestic rates—so a major price crash is unlikely. Still, the sentiment may remain weak for some time. Additionally, the possibility of an agreement affecting the ethanol industry may continue to put pressure on the market. Heavy arrivals were seen in various mandis, and it is reported that only 20–30% of the total production has reached the market so far, indicating possible supply pressure ahead. A record sown area of 94.90 lakh hectares and expectations of a bumper crop had already created an oversupply environment since the beginning of the season, and prices have remained under pressure accordingly. A major setback for maize came from changes in the ethanol policy. In states like Madhya Pradesh, where a large portion of maize consumption depends on ethanol production, reduced quotas for petroleum-based ethanol weakened domestic demand. The government’s decision to allocate 5.2 million tons of rice for ethanol production has caused many ethanol plants to nearly stop purchasing maize. Poultry and feed demand was also weak this week, as increasing availability of DDGS has made it a cheaper alternative to maize. Stockists have shown little interest in buying wet maize, leaving the entire supply burden on farmers and mandis. Farmers in several states have renewed their demand for MSP procurement. Telangana has already announced plans to purchase 8 lakh tons of maize at MSP. In the India–Myanmar trade agreement, maize was intentionally excluded by India. Currently, the maize market is stuck between international trade developments, excessive supply, weak industrial demand, and uncertainties in ethanol policy. As a result, there is little hope for any significant recovery in the near future. Over the next 2–3 weeks, industrial demand and decisions related to ethanol will determine market direction. If stockists become active, a slight recovery may occur, but it is unlikely to happen soon. Trade cautiously based on your own judgement.