India’s cotton production for the 2025-26 Kharif season is projected to surpass last year's levels, despite a decline in sown area and damage from excessive rains in some regions. Traders and industry experts remain optimistic about the harvest, attributing the expected rise in output to favorable weather and lower pest infestations. This year’s production is estimated between 32.5 million and 34 million bales (170 kg per bale), compared to 31.2 million bales in the 2024-25 season. Sowing Down in Key States India’s total cotton acreage dropped by 2.5%, from 112.48 lakh hectares last year to 109.64 lakh hectares this season. Major cotton-producing states saw noticeable reductions: Gujarat: 20.82 lakh hectares (down from 23.66 lakh hectares) Maharashtra: 38.44 lakh hectares (down from 40.81 lakh hectares) Southern India Emerges as Growth Driver Cotton output in South India is expected to rise sharply to 105 lakh bales, up from 88 lakh bales last year. Karnataka: 25% increase to 30 lakh bales Telangana: 10% increase to 53–55 lakh bales Andhra Pradesh: Expected at 17 lakh bales, up from 12.5 lakh bales Prices Under Pressure, Trading Below MSP Cotton prices have dipped below the government's Minimum Support Price (MSP), currently ranging between ₹5,500 and ₹7,000 per quintal. This has led to concerns among farmers and traders alike. The government's decision to remove the 11% import duty on cotton is expected to increase imports, especially in the October–December window. Cotton imports could reach 4.1 million bales in 2024–25, a significant rise from 1.5 million bales last year. CCI Steps In With Massive Procurement Drive To stabilize the market and support farmers, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has launched a large-scale procurement initiative. It has opened 550 procurement centers nationwide and plans to purchase cotton at MSP rates. Last season, the CCI procured 10 million bales and currently holds 1.2 million bales in stock. Global Outlook: India Gains as Others Struggle Internationally, drought and water shortages in major producing countries like the United States and Pakistan have affected output. The USDA projects an increase in India’s cotton production, while India’s imports may decline to 3.58 million bales. Meanwhile, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) estimates that global production may fall from 26 million to 25 million tons.