India's basmati rice exports to the United States have been severely impacted by a combination of steep U.S. tariffs and devastating floods in the northern state of Punjab, creating an opportunity for Pakistan to expand its market share. The U.S. recently imposed a 50% tariff on Indian basmati rice — initially 25%, followed by an additional 25% — in response to India’s ongoing trade relations with Russia, particularly its oil imports. The high duty is expected to make Indian rice significantly more expensive for American buyers, potentially pricing it out of the market. In contrast, Pakistan faces a much lower tariff of just 19%, giving it a competitive edge in the lucrative U.S. market. Pakistani exporters have welcomed the development, viewing it as a chance to strengthen their presence in the American basmati rice segment. Compounding India’s challenges, widespread flooding in Punjab — the country’s key basmati-producing region — has submerged over 150,000 hectares of farmland, cutting potential output by an estimated 10%. The state’s farmers, already burdened by debt and reliant on mechanized farming, face significant financial stress due to the crop losses. Pakistan’s Punjab region has also been affected by floods, but early estimates suggest a comparatively lower impact on basmati production, with losses estimated between 10% and 15%. The U.S. remains a vital market for both countries. India exported over 234,000 metric tons of basmati rice to the U.S. last year, valued at around $300 million. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s overall basmati exports rose sharply to over 772,000 tons, earning nearly $877 million. With basmati rice making up 60% of all rice imports in the U.S., and the global market projected to reach $27 billion by 2032, both nations are closely watching market dynamics. While Pakistan is poised to benefit from the current scenario, Indian exporters argue that Pakistan cannot fully meet the volume demands of the U.S. market.