The Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its All India Crop Committee meeting in Mumbai, attended by around 25 members from across the country. The committee reviewed the cotton balance sheet for the 10-month period from October 2024 to July 2025 and provided updated estimates for the entire 2024-25 cotton season. Key Highlights from the Meeting (All figures in bales of 170 kg each) Cotton Production and Pressing - India cotton production estimate for the 2024-25 season remains unchanged at 311.22 lakh bales. Till July 31, pressing of 302.24 lakh bales has been completed. The remaining 8.98 lakh bales are expected to arrive by September 2025. Consumption Estimate Raised - Cotton consumption estimate has been revised upward by 6 lakh bales, now projected at 314 lakh bales. Export and Import Updates Exports increased to 18 lakh bales (up from 17 lakh); 16 lakh bales exported till July 31. Imports remain unchanged at 39 lakh bales; 33 lakh bales imported till July, averaging 3.30 lakh bales/month. Closing Stocks Hit Multi-Year High Closing stock as of September 30, 2025 is estimated at 57.59 lakh bales, revised upward from 55.59 lakh bales � the highest closing stock in several years. Pressing Details From October 1, 2024 to July 31, 2025, an average of 1 lakh bales/day were pressed. In July 2025 alone, 5.67 lakh bales were pressed. Opening Stock Revised Opening stock as on September 30, 2024 revised from 30.19 lakh to 39.19 lakh bales: 27 lakh bales with spinning mills 12 lakh bales with CCI and others Mill Stock Position As of July 31, 2025, spinning mills held an estimated 32.50 lakh bales. Average stock covers 35 - 40 days of operations: North India: 60-75 days South & Central India: ~30 days Total Stock Estimate Combined stock with mills, CCI, ginners, traders, and MNCs is estimated at 96.77 lakh bales. CCI and private traders hold about 64.27 lakh bales. Government Production Estimate Raised The Ministry of Agriculture has increased its 2024-25 cotton production estimate from 294.25 lakh to 307 lakh bales. CCI Carry-Forward Stock Due to high imports and declining ICE futures, CCI is expected to carry forward 25-30 lakh bales into the next season. Global Factors and Challenges China has halted cotton purchases from the US. With 400 lakh bales of production, 480 lakh bales of consumption, and over 400 lakh bales of old stock, China may use its reserves, putting pressure on global cotton prices. US imposes 50% tariff on Indian textile exports, which could negatively impact domestic cotton and yarn consumption. Brazil production expected to rise by 7% to 235 lakh bales, creating more export pressure due to lower prices. New Season Sowing & Crop Outlook Sowing conditions are satisfactory across most states; 5-10% increase in yield expected. Higher sales of Gujarat 4G and 5G seeds in Maharashtra may boost yields by 10-15%. Karnataka may witness a record production of 28-30 lakh bales (up from 24 lakh). New crop arrivals are expected from September 15 in North and South India, with 30-35 lakh bales likely between September and October. Market Outlook In the absence of CCI procurement, cotton prices may fall to ₹6,000-₹7,200 per quintal. However, higher prices for cottonseed (Kapasia/Sarki) may provide cost relief for ginners. Conclusion With production stable and consumption rising, Indias cotton sector is set for a balanced yet cautious season. The record-high closing stocks and global uncertainties such as China cotton strategy, US tariffs, and Brazil export push will play a key role in shaping prices and trade decisions in the coming months.